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A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions cover national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses something to gain from the other's positions."

Appeal for Wider Discussion

Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."